《伯努利谬误》内容简介

　　本书通过梳理统计学的发展脉络，从这一切的源头开始，追溯统计学的历史，并回顾数学史上的一些著名争论。本书意在反思所谓的正统统计学理论和方法存在怎样的误解，以期引起人们对如何更合适、更恰当地使用统计学工具的思考，并希望人们正视过去常被忽略的贝叶斯方法的合理性。内容涉及伯努利的开创性工作，互为对手的统计学派的不同观点，以及后续的统计学家对统计方法的探讨和发展等。

　　作者简介

　　奥布里·克莱顿（Aubrey Clayton）是数学家、统计学家，加州大学伯克利分校应用数学博士。他的研究多见刊于《太平洋标准报》《鹦鹉螺》和《波士顿环球报》。

A brief introduction to the Bernoulli Fallacy

This book traces the history of statistics from its origins and reviews some of the most famous debates in the history of mathematics. The purpose of this book is to reflect on the misunderstandings of the so-called orthodox statistical theories and methods, to arouse people's thinking about how to use statistical tools more appropriately and properly, and to face the rationality of Bayesian methods that have been ignored in the past. The content involves Bernoulli's pioneering work, the different views of rival statistical schools, and the discussion and development of statistical methods by subsequent statisticians.

About the author

Aubrey Clayton is a mathematician, statistician, and Ph.D. in applied mathematics from the University of California, Berkeley. His research has appeared in the Pacific Standard, Nautilus, and The Boston Globe.